What it is
Anchoring occurs when the first piece of numerical or categorical information encountered sets a reference point that is difficult to adjust away from, even when later information would justify a very different conclusion. The anchor need not be relevant - an arbitrary number introduced before a judgement still shifts the outcome. Humans anchor because adjustment from any starting point requires cognitive effort, and people tend to stop adjusting before they have moved far enough.
Where it shows up
In build-vs-buy decisions, anchoring most commonly appears when an initial vendor quote or an internal cost estimate is shared early in the process. Every subsequent option gets evaluated against that first number rather than against an objective cost model. A vendor who opens with a high figure will consistently extract more than one who prices conservatively, because the team's sense of "reasonable" has already shifted.
What Rubicon Probity does
When Rubicon Probity detects a decision record at the Decide stage where a single cost figure or vendor quote appears before any structured evaluation criteria, it surfaces a CAUTION flag and prompts the team to establish an independent reference class before reviewing vendor numbers. The flag links to base-rate data for comparable build or procurement decisions.
Detection questions
- Was the first cost figure you considered sourced from a vendor, or from an independent reference class?
- If you removed the initial number from the conversation, would you arrive at the same budget range?
- Have you documented the criteria and weighting used to evaluate options before any pricing was shared?